The Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian economies are on their way out of the EU’s deepest-ever contractions faster than had been previously estimated, according to a report by the independent UK-based macroeconomic research consultancy Capital Economics.
The leading consultancy, based at exclusive offices on Buckingham Palace Road, London, had itself forecast contractions in 2011. In a post of its Emerging Europe Update in January 2010 about Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics, it stated: “We expect all of the economies in this group to contract again this year.”
However, it has now corrected this forecast, stating that all three Baltic countries will expand by a healthy 3 percent next year.
As manufacturing picks up and the financial sector improves, Estonian gross domestic product will probably rise by as much as 3 percent even in 2010, compared with a previous estimate for a 1 percent contraction.
The Lithuanian economy will register zero growth in 2010, Capital Economics estimates, compared with a previously forecast reduction of 2 percent, while Latvian GDP will decline by just 0.5 percent and not by 3.5 percent as imagined earlier.
“We clearly underestimated the pace of the recovery, particularly in industry,” said David Oxley, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

Budget for 2011 is work in progress Wages up, retail down

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